I suggest that there is only one reason to spend large amounts of money and sacrifice American lives in foreign military efforts and that obviously is to protect the homeland against another Nine-eleven attack. Other reasons for such a commitment are not strong enough to overcome the costs named above.
In order to analyze this proposition adequately it is helpful to assign a mathematical degree of assurance to the various alternatives at the Nation’s disposal.
If both Afghanistan and Pakistan are pacified are the odds of attack (from another location) lessened? Have the odds changed significantly? That is, could radicals plan, recruit and finance such activity from another location in the world? If so, how many locations are there?
Have we considered the adequacy of other actions nesessary to protect the nation against the various kinds of attacks which are also likely, in addition to crashing airlines into populated areas?
The outcome of the analysis I suggest leads to the conclusion that our present effort is ineffective in protecting us and a waste of money and lives. On the other hand have we done an adequate job in securing the homeland? This second approach is the only reasonable course to take.
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